But why have the University of Glasgow done this? In a recent article in the University paper “Finance, Politics and Policy” it was noted that there was an increasing need for individuals to take a wider view of the global economy. The paper went on to note that forecasts were becoming more uncertain as the medium to long term economic outlook became bleaker. By introducing a quiz to take my forecasting time series data quiz for me, the University is encouraging more people to take the challenge of being able to make informed decisions on key economic and political issues.
The first question posed is, “Why are you interested in knowing your own personal forecast of the future?” The answer could be to improve your understanding of global economics and the implications for your own personal finances. Or perhaps you may want to develop your own personal ‘gut feel’ about the state of the global economy. Even so, most experts agree that at least a basic knowledge of the series is essential for helping you make informed decisions.
Once you have taken my forecasting time series data quiz, what next? The answer can range from exploring its findings for learning purposes, to engaging in some serious research. One of the most useful aspects of having your own foresight is that you are in control, you can take a very active role in how you understand, predict and react to future trends. It also gives you the opportunity to develop and refine your own forecasting techniques. You may decide that the series is too simple or too complicated, but whatever you decide, it will not be a random occurrence.
The economic data analyzed comes from the past three decades. A common question is “How does the data compare to my previous forecasts?” The answer to that question is, not surprisingly, that the data set covers a wider range over a wider period of time. This gives you a better picture of how the economy has performed compared to your earlier forecasts. It also allows you to make some very useful forecasts about future economic conditions. For example, the average time span between economic trends (the rise in business activity as reflected in retail sales) and downturns (a fall in business activity) can now be predicted well.
There are some other interesting questions that can be answered by using the data set. How does the economic data set perform against other similar economic indicators? How does it compare with base interest rate data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and even with government debt data? How do interest rates and inflation affect trade flows? Why are unemployment rates lower than expected for periods beyond the recession? Is the current economic cycle (the trough of the recession) different from others in the past?
By being able to answer these questions confidently and using methods that are consistent with economic theory, you can learn a great deal about future economic conditions. The questions are designed to help you predict future trends and behavior based on existing economic facts. If you can learn this skill, it can provide an enormous advantage in your career, because you will know ahead of anyone else what the prevailing trend will be before they see it. You will have more important data at your disposal to make better informed forecasts. This means faster turnarounds on important decisions, hence improving your reputation as an intelligent forecaster.
The internet has made it possible for anyone to take my forecasting time series data quiz for me. You don’t have to have advanced degrees in economics to understand it. It is easy to learn, and once you start seeing the patterns that emerge, you will wonder why it took you so long to master it. Forecasting is much easier than it used to be, and you can use this to your advantage to ensure your financial success in the future.